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Geopolitics · U.S. x Iran
Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Chart
All CLOBWinner probabilities
Steve Witkoff 16cAbbas Araghchi 15.5cJD Vance 12cJared Kushner 10.5cSheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani 7.5cElon Musk 0.8c
Markets
20 outcomesOutcome prices
Steve Witkoff$22K vol
16cChance
Abbas Araghchi$65K vol
15.5cChance
JD Vance$123K vol
12cChance
Jared Kushner$27K vol
10.5cChance
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani$14K vol
7.5cChance
Masoud Pezeshkian$48K vol
6.1cChance
Donald Trump$51K vol
6cChance
Shehbaz Sharif$27K vol
5.4cChance
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan$2K vol
4cChance
Recep Tayyip Erdogan$2K vol
4cChance
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi$1K vol
3.6cChance
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa$2K vol
3.4cChance
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah$1K vol
2.5cChance
Mohammed bin Salman$3K vol
1.5cChance
Marco Rubio$7K vol
1.5cChance
Pete Hegseth$4K vol
1.4cChance
Benjamin Netanyahu$3K vol
1.4cChance
King Abdullah II$16K vol
1.3cChance
Mojtaba Khamenei$10K vol
0.4cChance
Live
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.
Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.
OK
Outcome proposed
NoOK
Dispute window
No disputeOK
Final outcome
No
hopefullylucky23h ago
As we’ve been reporting, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that because the document has been signed digitally, there will be no physical signing ceremony in Switzerland. He said that negotiating teams would still gather in Geneva on Friday for the follow-up negotiations., SIGNING CANCELLED, WHEN WILL THIS RESOLVE?BigDumbDumb21h ago
on Friday probably when we see what happened what do you mean ?BigDumbDumb21h ago
you probably should not be betting here if you do not understand the resolution of this market if jd will be there you loose if he won't be there you win makes no sense to make the resolution right nowWorse-Downturn20h ago
RTFRWorse-Downturn20h ago
"If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”."hopefullylucky19h ago
@BigDumbDumb A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. It will resolve to no if it just for the purpose of negotiations/discussions even if JD Vance is present.Roeman19h ago
No signing ceremony will happen, but the end date is 7 julyBigDumbDumb16h ago
yeah that is what I am saying if they are there and signing stuff I win if they are not there or not signing you win is not that hard to understand but for it to resolve now makes absolutely no sense wait till Friday see what is happening and after it will resolve why would it resolve today makes no senseBigDumbDumb16h ago
just for your information what I am betting on if jd goes there it will be a signing ceremony because otherwise he likely won't go there for negotiations look at the other market on diplomatic meeting attendanceAgentstvonasilia7h ago
7 juleIrresponsible-Bibliography1d ago
Iran: Foreign Ministry spokesman says ‘no changes’ made to plans for Switzerland meeting to sign agreement