JD Vance$126K vol
10.5cSelected
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JD Ab St Ja Ma Sh Do Sh Re Mo Ha Ab Mi Mo Ma Pe Ki Be El Mo
Geopolitics · U.S. x Iran
Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?
Chart
All CLOBWinner probabilities
Abbas Araghchi 19cSteve Witkoff 13cJD Vance 10.5cJared Kushner 10.5cMasoud Pezeshkian 7.7c
Markets
20 outcomesOutcome prices
Abbas Araghchi$71K vol
19cChance
Steve Witkoff$22K vol
13cChance
Jared Kushner$27K vol
10.5cChance
Masoud Pezeshkian$48K vol
7.7cChance
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani$14K vol
7.5cChance
Donald Trump$51K vol
6cChance
Shehbaz Sharif$27K vol
5.4cChance
Recep Tayyip Erdogan$2K vol
4.1cChance
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan$2K vol
4cChance
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa$2K vol
3.7cChance
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi$1K vol
3.6cChance
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah$1K vol
2.5cChance
Mohammed bin Salman$3K vol
1.5cChance
Marco Rubio$7K vol
1.5cChance
Pete Hegseth$4K vol
1.4cChance
King Abdullah II$16K vol
1.4cChance
Benjamin Netanyahu$3K vol
1.4cChance
Elon Musk$1K vol
0.8cChance
Mojtaba Khamenei$10K vol
0.4cChance
Live
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.
Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.
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Final outcome
Awaiting official result
hopefullylucky1d ago
As we’ve been reporting, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that because the document has been signed digitally, there will be no physical signing ceremony in Switzerland. He said that negotiating teams would still gather in Geneva on Friday for the follow-up negotiations., SIGNING CANCELLED, WHEN WILL THIS RESOLVE?BigDumbDumb22h ago
on Friday probably when we see what happened what do you mean ?BigDumbDumb22h ago
you probably should not be betting here if you do not understand the resolution of this market if jd will be there you loose if he won't be there you win makes no sense to make the resolution right nowWorse-Downturn22h ago
RTFRWorse-Downturn22h ago
"If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”."hopefullylucky21h ago
@BigDumbDumb A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. It will resolve to no if it just for the purpose of negotiations/discussions even if JD Vance is present.Roeman20h ago
No signing ceremony will happen, but the end date is 7 julyBigDumbDumb18h ago
yeah that is what I am saying if they are there and signing stuff I win if they are not there or not signing you win is not that hard to understand but for it to resolve now makes absolutely no sense wait till Friday see what is happening and after it will resolve why would it resolve today makes no senseBigDumbDumb18h ago
just for your information what I am betting on if jd goes there it will be a signing ceremony because otherwise he likely won't go there for negotiations look at the other market on diplomatic meeting attendanceAgentstvonasilia8h ago
7 juleIrresponsible-Bibliography1d ago
Iran: Foreign Ministry spokesman says ‘no changes’ made to plans for Switzerland meeting to sign agreement