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Geopolitics · Ukraine

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

$1M volume$13K 24hEnds Dec 31, 20262 outcomesLive
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2 outcomes
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.

Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

OK

Outcome proposed

No
OK

Dispute window

No dispute
OK

Final outcome

No

tsybka4d ago

Joe, can we get a lower price?

Haimianbaobao4d ago

The issue with this market is that the resolution is based on a website that even Joe himself might be controlling. The rules should have been stricter.

DonationsReceiver5d ago

need a market if gasoline returns to Crimea instead

DonationsReceiver5d ago

this market will resolve if 80% of gas stations have waiting lines less than 200m and more than 20 liters of gas can be sold to a single customer

SubashChandraBose5d ago

what will be the resolution source for the waiting line verification?

DonationsReceiver1d ago

Russia Today, I'm kidding

IamBatman-5d ago

that guy is literally burning money, the fair value is probably 0.2c for Yes shares

SubashChandraBose7d ago

@RiseFromTheAshes if you have even 1 brain cell, sell all of the Yes shares now

RiseFromTheAshes5d ago

Come back and check this market in September.......then reassess your ignorance

SubashChandraBose5d ago

haha, you are as delusional as the vatniks who thinks Russia will capture Odessa, Kharkiv soon if you think Ukraine gets anywhere close to Crimea this year. It would be an achievement itself to go past Kamianske.

SubashChandraBose5d ago

just like you thought how Kostantinovka train station could never be captured? even by end of year. Surprise Surprise UkieAzov it's somewhat under Russian Forces' control now although not completely and ISW will stop coping in coming weeks or months.

LiquidatedDegen8d ago

Schizo TSYBKA can't predict anything. All he does is buys NO in hopes that NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. Then he farms his followers by selling after he makes X post. He is truly a parasite.