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Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

$3M volume$1K 24hEnds Nov 3, 20262 outcomesLive
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This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

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PO

polymark2d ago

This might be a dumb heuristic, but I wonder if Zuck being at UFC 250 shows the Midterms won't be a huge Blue wave/Dem blowout. Given Zuck has internal access to some of the most relevant data (i.e. FB, IG etc.) about sentiment toward both parties & doesn't have an obligation to be visible alongside Trump/GOP it perhaps indicates he thinks its worthwhile to be on Trump/GOP's good side for the remainder of his term. Was trying to think of how to trade that if its true, and wonder if this market is the best to do it as Dems could still take House even without a blowout but this seems like more of a coin toss.
DI

Distant-Encouragement17h ago

It proves that CEOs feel that in this command economy driven by fealty to the White House, cozying up to Trump is a necessary business decision. That is all it means.
DE

Defiant-Committee-Accord6d ago

Dems will take Ohio and Texas.

Trader-polycc.cc22d ago

With solid data support and mature analytical logic, you can always stay ahead and seize favorable opportunities in time
CK

CKAB22d ago

New - Senate poll - Texas 🔵 Talarico 45% 🔴 Paxton 38% PPP #B (🔵) - LV - 5/26 MAGA is donezo and Trump is historically unpopular. Dems flip both houses and Trump becomes lame duck president. It's over.
PA

PaulRevere13d ago

“It’s over.” Did it happen already?

TCA8d ago

Thank god, the faster we can erase that vile stain on our nation the better. What an absolute monster. The damage he's done to this country we will NEVER recover from. economically we're on the brink of collapse and wall street is covering it's ear and eyes refusing to see that AI is a bubble waiting to pop, our reputation with the world is destroyed. That disgusting traitor should have his vile name stricken from the earth. His entire family needs to pay for their crimes as well. Stop letting these people divide us!!! We can all see now, the mask is off. It's the Epstein class, and it's the rest of us... whose side are you on?
DE

Defiant-Committee-Accord22d ago

Buy the dip, Dems in 2026
RO

Rotten-Quota26d ago

If you look at the Seat-by-Seat map, it shows the Democrats holding 52 seats.
AG

Agile-Rider30d ago

Opportunity Sharing: Buy 50, 51, 52, and 53 under "Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?", then buy Republican No here. There is currently a 13-point spread. Free money.
FA

fatdwarf30d ago

54 seats
FA

fatdwarf30d ago

54 seats or above would be lose