Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.

Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).