

Finance · IPO
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
Probability history
Outcome prices

This market will resolve to “Up” if SpaceX's closing share price on the last trading day of the calendar month in which SpaceX completes its Initial Public Offering (IPO) is greater than or equal to the closing share price on its first day of trading. Otherwise, it will resolve to “Down.”
The official closing price as listed by the primary exchange will be considered the closing share price for the purposes of this market. The IPO offer price, or the price of any transaction not on the primary exchange, will not count for resolution of this market.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by SpaceX to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.
If SpaceX’s first day of trading falls on the last trading day of the calendar month, this market will consider the closing share price of the last trading day of the following calendar month, treating it as though SpaceX completed its IPO the following month for the purposes of this market.
Outcome proposed
PendingDispute window
Open until resolutionFinal outcome
Awaiting official result
Shilu451d ago
It will close down just save itSnow-White6d ago
the strike here is $160.95 - see https://financeDOTyahooDOTcom/quote/SPCX/history/Snow-White6d ago
I mention this because the market feels mispriced to me - perhaps people mistakenly think that $171 is the strike price because you see headlines stating SPCX opened at $171, but if you read the rules, you will see it is actually the closing price on the first day of trading (June 12) that is the strike - $160.95, not $171.