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Will any country leave NATO by...?

$1M volume$391.41 24hEnds Dec 31, 20262 outcomesLive
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2 outcomes
Live

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OK

Outcome proposed

No
OK

Dispute window

No dispute
OK

Final outcome

No
EL

Elementary-Rebellion56d ago

Slovenia, Spain, and the United States. It's odd that the probability here is lower than for the United States alone.
HO

Hoarse-Volatility43d ago

So odd
PR

Prosperity16878d ago

In May 2020, the Trump administration announced its intention to leave the Open Skies Treaty and ignored the legal notification requirements. The Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, at the time led by Assistant Attorney General Steven Engel, issued an opinion arguing that the notice requirements infringed on the president’s constitutional authority over foreign affairs. “The President’s power to withdraw from treaties flows from his constitutional role as the ‘sole organ of the nation in its external relations,’ granting him discretion in conducting foreign affairs and implementing or terminating treaties without congressional constraints on diplomatic decisions,” Engel wrote in the administration’s final days.

saneperson77d ago

bro how do you still have money to gamble, and why are you still betting 💀
PR

Prosperity16877d ago

Why are you betting if you’re only up 700$ what’s the point? That’s one dinner sir 🤣
TD

TDD22378d ago

hes going to invoke the article and use it as a bargaining chip
PH

philou74778d ago

[link removed].uk/news/world/middle-east/[link removed]
MO

Moist-Jazz117d ago

nato will dissolves before July
CH

charlee13149d ago

what u ppl think about this right now ?

LucyJoe153d ago

Denmark probably wants to withdraw, but if it does, Greenland will be attacked.

JacinthHenry-Martin226d ago

Hungary withdraws from NATO by end of 2025 amid Orban's pro-Russia pivot.

JulesAnthony227d ago

Turkey exits NATO by December 2025 amid escalating tensions with US.